基于增量动态均衡配置的黄河分水方案优化方法研究

Water allocation scheme optimization in the Yellow River based on incremental dynamic equilibrium configuration

针对“八七”分水方案颁布实施以来黄河流域经济社会发展、工程建设运用、用水特征、水沙情势等分水基础条件的改变,以及黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展重大国家战略对流域水资源配置提出的新要求,结合黄河流域重大水源工程与调节工程建设运用,考虑新战略下维持河流健康生态要求,统筹用水的公平性与效率因素,提出了黄河流域水资源增量动态均衡配置方法。重点研究了南水北调西线工程生效之前的情景,维持“八七”分水方案总体格局,考虑新增水源和分水调整的制约因素,对新增水源工程和调节工程带来的水资源增量进行动态均衡配置,实现对“八七”分水方案的微调优化。对黄河流域多个场景下分水方案调整策略进行研究,结果表明:分水方案优化调整策略为增加上游水量配置占比,调整幅度为2.13%~2.78%;微增中游水量配置占比,调整幅度为0.25%~0.31%;减少下游和河北省、天津市水量配置占比,调整幅度为-3.81%~-2.38%。

The basic conditions of water distribution have changed since promulgation and implementation of the 1987 s Water Allocation Scheme,including economic and social development,engineering construction and application,water use characteristics,and water-sand regime,and the major national strategies for ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin also put forward new requirements for water resources allocation.In consideration of above factors,the method of incremental dynamic equilibrium configuration of water resources in the Yellow River Basin was proposed based on the application of major water source projects and regulation projects and idea of maintaining river ecosystem health under the new strategies,in which the factors of the fairness and efficiency of water use were incorporated.Focusing on the scenario before the West Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project takes effect,following the overall pattern of the 1987 s Water Allocation Scheme,and considering the restrictive factors of new water sources and water distribution adjustment,dynamic equilibrium configuration was carried out to distribute water increment from additional water source projects and regulation projects,realizing the fine-tuning optimization of the 1987 s Water Allocation Scheme.The adjustment strategy of water allocation scheme in multiple scenarios in the Yellow River Basin is optimized as follows:increasing the amount of water allocation in the upstream,with an increasing rate of 2.13%to 2.78%;slightly increasing the amount of water allocation in the midstream,with an increasing rate of 0.25%to 0.31%;decreasing the amount of water allocation in the downstream as well as Hebei Province and Tianjing City,with a decreasing rate of-3.81%to-2.38%.