和田河流域冰川径流对气候变化响应的模拟分析

Simulation of response of glacier runoff to climate change in the Hotan River Basin

为模拟和田河流域上游冰川径流,构建了嵌入冰川模块的SWAT模型,并基于实测径流数据及冰川编目数据对模型进行校正与验证,定量分析了和田河流域上游冰川径流的变化趋势及其对出山径流的贡献和对气候变化的响应规律。结果表明:1967—2017年玉龙喀什河流域多年平均冰川径流量为11.02亿m^(3),冰川径流对出山径流的贡献率为48.7%,喀拉喀什河流域多年平均冰川径流量为9.51亿m^(3),冰川径流贡献率为45.5%;在0.01显著性水平下,玉龙喀什河流域气温与降水量均呈显著上升趋势,喀拉喀什河流域气温呈显著上升趋势,降水量呈不显著上升趋势;气候变化背景下,两条支流由于地理位置、冰川特征等的不同,导致两条支流的径流响应呈现较大差异,玉龙喀什河流域冰川径流量呈显著增加趋势,而冰川径流对出山径流的贡献率呈显著下降趋势,喀拉喀什河流域冰川径流量与冰川径流贡献率均呈不显著增加趋势。

The SWAT model embedded with glacier module was built for glacier runoff simulation in the upper Hotan River Basin.Based on the measured runoff data and glacier cataloging data,the model was corrected and verified,and the contribution of glacier runoff to surface runoff,change trend of glacier runoff,and its response rule to climate change in the river basin were quantitatively analyzed.The results show that the average annual glacial runoff of the Yurungkash River Basin is 11.02×10^(8) m^(3),with its contribution rate to surface runoff being 48.70%,and the average annual glacial runoff of the Karakash River Basin is 9.51×10^(8) m^(3),with its contribution rate to surface runoff being 45.46%;with regard to the significance level of 0.01,temperature and precipitation of the Yurungkash River Basin have significant increasing trends,respectively,temperature of the Karakash River Basin has a significant increasing trend,while precipitation of the Karakash River Basin has an insignificant increasing trend;under the climate change background,there is a large difference between the runoff responses of the two tributaries due to different geographical positions and glacier characteristics,with glacier runoff of the Yurungkash River Basin and its contribution rate having a significant increasing and decreasing trend,respectively,while the glacial runoff of the Karakash River Basin and its contribution rate both having increasing trends.