青藏高原气候变化对牧场生产的影响

Effects of Climate Change on Pasture Production on Qinghai-Tibet Plateau-based on Integratedanalyse of Database

青藏高原作为中国重要放牧区之一,畜牧业是当地牧民的主要经济支柱。青藏高原气候变化主要体现为温度升高、降水格局的异质性、CO_(2)浓度的上升以及极端灾害的增加,影响当地牧场生产。本文通过对27例2011-2021年发表的试验内196组数据进行整合分析,研究了青藏高原植物生物量和多样性对气候变化的响应模式。结果表明:随增温幅度增加,植物地上生物量变化率先增加后减小,于3.72℃达最大值,Shannon-Wiener多样性指数则随温度升高以0.04/℃的速率减小;年降水量增加促进植物净初级生产力增加,降水量增加100mm,净初级生产力增加18.33g/m^(2)。研究分析了气候变化影响牧草产量和品质、家畜生产性能和牧户生产生活的机理,为青藏高原畜牧业应对气候变化提供科学依据。

Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is one of the important grazing areas in China, and animal husbandry is the main economic pillar of local herdsmen. The climate change on Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is mainly reflected in the increase of temperature, the heterogeneity of precipitation pattern, the increase of CO_(2)concentration and the increase of extreme disasters, which affect the local pasture production. Based on the integrative analysis of 196 sets of data from 27 trials published from 2011 to 2021,this paper studies the response model of plant biomass and diversity to climate change on Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The results showed that with the increase of temperature, the change of aboveground biomass first increased and then decreased, reaching the maximum at 3.72℃,and the Shannon-Wiener diversity index decreased at the rate of 0.04/℃ with the increase of temperature;The increase of annual precipitation promotes the increase of plant net primary productivity. The precipitation increases by 100 mm and the net primary productivity increases by 18.33 g/m^(2).The mechanism of climate change affecting forage yield and quality, livestock production performance and herdsmen’s production and life was studied and analyzed, so as to provide a scientific basis for animal husbandry on Qinghai-Tibet Plateau to deal with climate change.