交通基础设施、旅游业发展与经济增长的关系研究--基于PVAR模型对广东21市的实证分析

Research on the Relationship among Transportation Infrastructure,Tourism Development and Economic Growth

采集广东省21市2005—2019年的面板时间序列数据,构建PVAR模型,运用格兰杰因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数对交通基础设施、旅游业发展和经济增长之间的动态影响关系进行了实证分析。研究结果表明:交通基础设施、旅游业发展和经济增长两两之间存在双向因果关系,旅游业发展和交通基础设施之间具有长期相互促进作用;交通基础设施和旅游业均对经济增长产生正向影响;而经济增长对交通基础设施产生负向影响,对旅游业短期有正向影响,长期有负向影响。根据研究结论提出了政策建议。

The panel time series data of 21 cities in Guangdong province from 2005 to 2019 were collected to construct a PVAR model,and the dynamic influence relationship among transportation infrastructure,tourism development and economic growth was empirically-analyzed by using Granger causality test and impulse response function.The results show that there is a two-way causal relationship among transportation infrastructure,tourism development and economic growth,and tourism development and transportation infrastructure have a long-term mutual promotion effect.Both transportation infrastructure and tourism have a positive impact on economic growth.While economic growth has a negative impact on transportation infrastructure,it has a positive impact on tourism in the short term and negative impact in the long term.Based on the research conclusions,some policy suggestions are put forward.