基于AHP-TOPSIS法的突发事件网络舆情风险预警研究

Research on the Early Warning of Network Public Opinion Risk in Emergencies Based on AHP-TOPSIS Method

[目的/意义]提高突发事件网络舆情风险预警能力是突发事件网络舆情危机管理,构筑和谐网络社会的关键。[方法/过程]本文针对突发事件的特点,构造AHP-TOPSIS模型,从主体强度、民众关注度、政府引导力度三个维度建立了突发事件舆情监测指标体系,并结合甘肃白银山地马拉松事件、四川省宜宾市长宁食品厂中毒窒息事件、安徽淮北工地溺水事件三个突发事件案例对模型进行实证研究。[结果/结论]实证结果表明,AHP-TOPSIS模型能够对突发事件网络舆情进行实时有效的监测,证明了该指标体系的实用性,本文结论有助于完善突发事件网络领域的风险评估及预警机制。

[Purpose/significance]Improving the ability of online public opinion risk early warning for emergencies is a key step for emergency network public opinion crisis management and building a harmonious network society.[Method/process]The paper constructs an AHP-TOPSIS model based on the characteristics of emergencies,and establishes an emergency public opinion monitoring indicator system from three dimensions of subject strength,public attention,and government guidance,and empirically studies model in combination with three emergency cases:Baiyin Mountain Marathon in Gansu province,poisoning and suffocation in Changning food factory in Yibin City,Sichuan province,and drowning in Huaibei construction site in Anhui province.[Result/conclusion]The empirical results show that the AHP-TOPSIS model can effectively monitor the network public opinion of emergencies in real time,which proves the practicability of the index system.The conclusion of the paper is helpful to improve the risk assessment and early warning mechanism in the field of network emergencies.