2010-2020年北京市女性乳腺癌死亡情况及趋势分析

Analysis on mortality and trend of breast cancer in women in Beijing,2010-2020

目的分析2010—2020年北京市户籍女性乳腺癌死亡情况及趋势,为开展乳腺癌的防控工作提供科学依据。方法基于2010—2020年北京市女性乳腺癌死因监测资料,计算死亡率、标化死亡率及每10万人过早死亡损失寿命年等指标,分析2010—2020年患者发病到死亡时间变化趋势及发生继发转移所占比例,采用Joinpoint软件分析2010—2020年北京市女性乳腺癌标化死亡率与年龄别死亡率的变化趋势。结果2010—2020年北京市户籍女性因乳腺癌死亡总例数为9108例,2020年粗死亡率为14.43/10万,较2010年(10.84/10万)上升了33.12%[平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)=3.10%,P<0.001],年龄标化后上升趋势减缓(AAPC=1.10%,P=0.012)。2010—2020年北京市户籍女性因乳腺癌死亡年龄中位数及患者从发病到死亡的生存时间中位数均整体上升。结论2010—2020年乳腺癌仍是北京市女性因恶性肿瘤死亡的主要原因,居恶性肿瘤死因顺位第5位,近年来发病率及死亡率呈逐年上升趋势,但生存期相对延长,说明北京市近年来的乳腺癌防治工作有效。

Objective To analyze the mortality and trend of breast cancer in women with registered permanent residence in Beijing from 2010 to 2020,and provide scientific evidence for the prevention and control of breast cancer.Methods Based on the surveillance data of breast cancer deaths in women in Beijing from 2010 to 2020,the mortality rate,standardized mortality rate and years of premature death per 100000 people(years of life lost,YLL rate)and other indicators were calculated,and the change in interval between onset and death of the patients and the proportion of the patients with secondary metastasis from 2010 to 2020 were analyzed.Software Joinpoint was used to analyze the trend of changes in the mortality rate and age-specific rate of breast cancer in the women in Beijing from 2010 to 2020.Results From 2010 to 2020,a total of 9108 deaths of breast cancer occurred in the women with registered permanent residence in Beijing,and the crude death rate in 2020 was 14.43/100000,an increase of 33.12%(average annual percent change,AAPC=3.10%,P<0.001)compared with 2010(10.84/100000),the age standardized mortality rate slowed a slighter increase(AAPC=1.10%,P=0.012).From 2010 to 2020,the median of age and the survival time from onset to death of the women who died of breast cancer in Beijing all showed an upward trends.Conclusion From 2010 to 2020,breast cancer was still the main cause of deaths from malignant tumors in women in Beijing,ranking fifth in malignant tumors.In recent years,the morbidity and mortality of breast cancer increased with year,but the survival time of women with breast cancer showed some increase,indicating that the prevention and treatment of breast cancer was effective in Beijing.