第二次人口转变视域下生育意愿的同侪效应--社会互动对生育意愿的影响

Peer Effect of Childbirth Expectation Based on Second Demographic Transition

我国生育率长期维持在低水平,人口问题愈发地引起了国家的关注。基于2018年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS2018)的数据,使用空间计量模型分析了社会互动在生育意愿形成中的作用。结果表明,育龄妇女不再从众,她们在考虑生几个孩子最佳时主要依据自身实际情况。发达国家的家庭完成了从以子女为中心向以夫妻或伴侣为中心的转变,这一趋势扩展到了我国。繁衍后代成为个人的选择,社会力量难以介入,学界一般称之为第二次人口转变。社会网络、非正式规范对个人失去了约束力,人们在进行生育决策时很可能不再参考邻里及社区的意见。

Based on China Family Panel Studies(CFPS2018), this paper uses spatial model to analyze the role of social interaction in the formation of Childbirth Expectation. It comes out that women of childbearing age no longer follow the crowd, and they consider how many children to be best based on their own conditions. A shift has took place in developed countries from children to couples, with women’s social status rising and independent to decide childbirth. Birth has become personal choice, which is hard for social forces to intervene.Then fertility rate goes down to a rather low level, which is called the second demographic transition. Our country encounters similar changes, so social networks and informal norms have lost their force on individuals.Certain person rejects the influence of both surrounding peers and all direct external interventions.