安徽省城镇化与服务业互动关系的实证研究——基于联立方程的3SLS方法

Empirical Study on the Interaction between Urbanization and Service Industry in Anhui Province——Based on Simultaneous Equation 3SLS Method

采取三阶段最小二乘法建立联立方程模型,选取城镇化水平和服务业发展水平作为内生变量,经济发展水平和工业化水平等指标作为外生变量,分析发现安徽省城镇化与服务业存在着正向互动关系,城镇化水平对服务业发展水平有显著的推进作用,但服务业发展水平对城镇化水平推进作用并不显著,最后依据影响变量的程度从地方政府政策支持、城镇化制度完善、服务业产业结构优化等方面提出相应建议。

The three-stage least square method is adopted to establish a simultaneous equation model.The urbanization level and the development level of service industry are selected as endogenous variables,and the indicators such as the level of economic development and the level of industrialization are selected as exogenous variables.The analysis shows that there is a positive interaction between urbanization and the service industry in Anhui Province.The level of urbanization plays a significant role in promoting the development of the service industry,but the development level of the service industry plays an insignificant role in promoting the urbanization level.According to the degree of influencing variables,corresponding suggestions are put forward from the aspects of local government policy support,improvement of urbanization system,and optimization of service industry structure.