中国民航运输与GDP增长的实证研究——基于BVAR模型

An Empirical Research of Civil Aviation Transport and GDP Growth in China——Based on BVAR Model

民航运输经济是我国经济的重要组成部分,2019年底爆发的新冠肺炎疫情使我国民航运输业遭受了重大打击.选取2000-2020年我国GDP、民航客运量和民航货运量作为研究指标建立VAR模型.在新冠肺炎疫情发生后的2020.1-2020.9,在获得GDP样本数据较少的情况下,将报告的季度GDP数据转化为月度GDP数据,进而采用对样本量要求较少的BVAR模型对我国民航客运量、民航货运量与GDP之间的关系进行研究.结果表明,我国民航运输经济与GDP增长存在长期均衡关系,疫情发生后也是如此.BVAR模型的预测结果表明,2020年间我国经济损失约7.69万亿元,经济增长率需达到7.77%才能恢复未受疫情影响前的正常水平.

As an important part of China’s economy,civil aviation transportation has been dealt a major blow by the COVID-19outbreak at the end of 2019.In the paper,the VAR model has been established with GDP,civil aviation passenger traffic volume and civil aviation cargo volume of 2000 to 2020 in China as research indicators.In the wake of the COVID-19 outbreak,from January 2020to September 2020,we converted the reported quarterly GDP data into monthly GDP data when the sample data were few.Then the BVAR model,which requires less sample size,is used to empirically study the relationship between civil aviation passenger traffic volume,civil aviation cargo volume and GDP in China.The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between air transport economy and economic growth in China,this is true even after the COVID-19 outbreak.The prediction results of BVAR model indicate that Chin’s economy of 2020 lost approximately RMB 7.69 trillion after the COVID-19 outbreak,and the economic growth rate needs to reach 7.77%to return to its normal level before the COVID-19 outbreak.