祖厉河流域降水指标的周期性研究

Periodicity of precipitation index in Zuli River Basin

降水是气候变化的主要内容,指示区域生态环境和水旱灾害状况。文章以复小波分析方法基于祖厉河流域4个雨量站的月尺度降水数据对年降水量和降水Gini系数的周期性变化开展研究。结果表明,年降水量和降水Gini系数的第一主周期有所差异,年降水量的第一主周期均小于20a,而降水Gini系数的第一主周期尺度较大,均大于20a。年降水量和降水Gini系数的10a以下小尺度周期在近30a来逐渐减弱甚至消失,且降水Gini系数的消失时间早于年降水量的消失时间。降水指标的周期性研究为流域水文气候变化的预测研究提供基础支撑。

Precipitation is a main content of climate change,indicating the situation of regional ecological environment and flood and drought disasters.Based on the monthly precipitation data of 4 rainfall stations in Zuli River Basin,the periodic changes of annual precipitation and precipitation Gini coefficient are studied by using complex wavelet analysis method.The results show that the first main period of annual precipitation and Gini coefficient is different,and the first main period of annual precipitation is less than 20a,while the first main period of Gini coefficient of precipitation is larger than 20a.In recent 30 years,the annual precipitation and the Gini coefficient of precipitation under 10 years gradually weakened or even disappeared,and the Gini coefficient of precipitation disappeared earlier than the annual precipitation.The periodicity study of precipitation index in this paper provides a basis for the prediction of hydrological and climatic changes.