2012—2021年中国重特大危化品事故分析与预防

Analysis and Prevention of Major Hazardous Chemical Accidents in China from 2012 to 2021

为掌握重特大危化品事故的发生规律,明确其发生原因,保障化工生产过程的安全性,首先,针对2012—2021年中国发生的13起重特大危化品事故进行统计分析,结果表明:13起事故中,重大事故有10起,特大事故有3起;从地域来看,重特大危化品事故主要集中在中国东部地区,以山东省和江苏省最为严重;从时间来看,重特大危化品事故多发生在2013年和2019年和每年的6—8月。其次,根据人、物、环境和管理四个要素及FTA分析方法绘制鱼刺图并建立了4层26类基本原因事件的事故树模型,得到315个最小割集和8个最小径集,并对基本事件的结构重要度进行计算和排序。最后,依据分析结果提出预防重特大危化品事故的对策措施。

In order to grasp the regularity of the occurrence of serious and extremely dangerous chemical accidents, to clarify their causes, and to ensure the safety of chemical production process. Firstly, a statistical analysis is made on 13 major and major chemical accidents in China from 2012 to 2021. The results show that there are 10 major accidents and 3 major accidents among the 13 accidents. In terms of region, major chemical accidents are mainly concentrated in eastern China, with Shandong and Jiangsu provinces being the most serious. In terms of time, major chemical accidents occurred mostly in 2013 and 2019, and from June to August every year. Secondly, according to the four factors of people, things, environment and management and FTA analysis method, the fish-thorn diagram was drawn and the accident tree model of 26 types of basic cause events with 4 layers was established. 315 minimum cut sets and 8 minimum path sets were obtained, and the structural importance degree of basic events was calculated and ranked. Finally, based on the analysis results, the countermeasures are put forward to prevent the occurrence of serious and extremely dangerous chemical accidents.