基于PSR模型的大别山区基本公共服务承载力及协调发展

Basic Public Service Carrying Capacity and Its Coordinated Development in Dabie Mountain Area Based on Pressure-State-Response Model

基于压力-状态-响应(PSR)模型,运用指数变换规范化、均方差赋权法、灰色模糊物元评价、耦合协调度模型、时间序列预测和标准差椭圆模型,对2003—2018年大别山区7个地市的基本公共服务承载力及其协调发展进行实证研究。结果表明:(1)大别山区基本公共服务协调度呈平稳增长的趋势;(2)各地市承载力协调度评价值在预测时段(2019—2023年)呈现增长趋势,标准差椭圆模型呈现出“西北—东南”趋势、重心移动路径偏北;(3)大别山区基本公共服务承载力的研究有待深化,后续研究应当从指标、时段和区域等方面进一步丰富和完善。

Based on the pressure-state-response model, by using normalization of exponential transformation, mean square deviation weighting method, grey fuzzy matter-element evaluation, coupling coordination degree model, time series prediction and standard deviation ellipse model, the basic public service carrying capacity and coordinated development of 7 cities in Dabie Mountain area from 2003 to 2018 are empirical researched. The results show that:(1) The coordination degree of basic public services in Dabie Mountain area shows a steady growth trend.(2) The evaluation value of carrying capacity coordination in various cities shows an increase trend in the prediction period(2019-2023). The standard deviation elliptic model shows a “northwest-southeast” trend, and the center of gravity moves to the north.(3) The research on the carrying capacity of basic public services in Dabie Mountain area needs to be deepened, and the follow-up research should be further enriched and improved from the aspects of indicators, time periods and regions.