拜登政府科技创新政策动向:战略意图、行动逻辑及对华潜在风险

Science and Technology Innovation Policy Trends of the Biden Administration:Strategic Intention,Action Logic and Potential Risks to China

拜登执政后美国科技创新政策相较特朗普政府时期发生了变化,政策动向可归纳为夯实美国科技基础、推进美国“再工业化”、封锁科技出口渠道、建立“排华”同盟体系等4个方面。战略意图为通过政策组合拳巩固美国科技领导地位,寻求在国际上的科技新优势,试图把中国排除在关键科技发展的技术轨道之外,将来自中国的威胁降到最低。行动逻辑是以“硬实力”为支撑、以“软实力”为抓手,于内增强科技实力,于外建立联盟体系;以竞争性共存为方向,建立对中国的战略防范,寻求中美关系的新平衡。在明晰其战略意图和行动逻辑的基础上,分析出拜登政府科技创新政策的对华潜在风险表现为压缩中美合作空间、阻断对华高科技供给、抢夺中国人才资源、阻碍中国国际科技交流与合作、剥夺中国国际标准制定话语权等。

After the Biden administration took office, a series of United States' science and technology innovation policies altered in comparison to those of the Trump administration, add⁃ ing to the uncertainty surrounding the future of Sino-US relations. The main tendencies of the Biden administration are recognized, and the strategic intentions, action logic and potential risks to China are clarified, by evaluating the content of US science and technology innovation poli⁃ cies. This is important in terms of China's ability to grasp the development trends in Sino-US re⁃ lations, plan strategically, put out a long-term strategy, and implement policies precisely. The Biden administration's technological innovation policy trends might be characterized into four aspects: solidifying the foundation of US science and technology;supporting US "re industrialization";restricting science and technology export channels;and forming an alliance system to exclude China. Specific strategies include increasing the intensity of R&D investment to ensure the global leadership in science and technology, revitalizing US manufacturing produc⁃ tion to ensure the localization of key industries, controlling technology exports to China to limit Chinese high-tech investment in the US, and establishing a value alliance system to isolate China. The Biden administration has chosen a strong policy tone toward China, influenced by the internal tensions and external circumstances, but it is more strategic and flexible. Its strategic in⁃ tention is to consolidate US science and technology leadership through a combination of policies, seek new international technological advantages, try to exclude China from the technological track of key technological development, and minimize the threat from China. The logic of the Biden administration's actions is to use "hard power" as support and "soft power" as a grip. It strengthens its scientific and technological strength internally and establishes an alliance system externally, so as to stabilize the US technology monopoly and undermine China's stable develop⁃ ment environment. With the direction of competitive coexistence, it establishes a strategic de⁃ fense against China and seeks a new balance in Sino-US relations. On the basis of clarifying the US strategic intentions and action logic, it is analyzed that the potential risks to China are mani⁃ fested in the following: the compression of Sino-US cooperation space and the destruction of global supply chains and value chains;the establishment of US high-tech wall to exclude China from the global high-tech ecosystem;the attraction of global science and technology talents to weaken the overall strength of China's science and technology human resources;the further dete⁃ rioration of the external environment for China's international scientific and technological coop⁃ eration and exchanges;and the further deprivation of China's right to participate in the formula⁃ tion of international standards.