中国生猪市场供需及政策效应分析

Analysis of Supply and Demand and its Policy Effects in China’s Hog Market

政策调控是推动生猪市场保供稳价及平稳有序发展的重要基础,探究政策变化对生猪市场供需影响具有重要现实意义。基于生猪市场供需基础数据及政策指数,在构建中国生猪市场模型把握生猪市场供需未来形势基础上,模拟政策变化对生猪市场供需的影响。研究结果表明:2025年,中国能繁母猪及生猪存栏量将达到4060.83万头和44505.18万头,生猪出栏量和猪肉产量将增至70808.10万头和5535.81万吨,生猪出栏率及胴体重达到159.10%和78.18千克/头;城乡居民猪肉消费总量分别达到3197.36万吨和1180.86万吨,生猪及猪肉价格维持在23.11元/千克和31.44元/千克。生猪市场调控政策增强可推动生猪生产、提升猪肉消费,抑制猪肉净进口增加和生猪市场价格上涨,政策减弱对生猪市场作用相反;政策实施对生猪生产作用最为明显,生猪市场价格所受影响次之,城乡居民猪肉消费和猪肉净进口所受影响相对较小。建议优化生猪市场调控政策体系,强化应对重大动物疫情能力,科学引导城乡居民猪肉消费,进一步夯实生猪市场平稳有序发展基础。

Policy regulation is conducive to the promotion of hog supply and price stability,as well as an important basis for the stable and orderly development of the hog market,and it is of great practical significance to explore the impact of policies change on the supply and demand of the hog market.Based on the basic data of hog market supply and demand and policy index,this study constructed the China hog market model to predict the future situation of hog market supply and demand,and simulated the im⁃pact of policies change on hog market supply and demand.The results of the study show that in 2025,the stock of breeding sows and hogs in China will reach 40.6 million and 445.05 million,the slaughter of hogs and pork production will increase to 708.08 million and 55.36 tons,and the slaughter rate and car⁃cass weight of hogs will reach 159.10%and 78.18 kg/head.The total pork consumption of urban and ru⁃ral residents will reach 31.97 million and 11.81 million tons respectively,while the price of live hog and pork will be maintained at RMB 23.11/kg and RMB 31.44/kg.Enhancement of hog market regulation policies can promote hog production and pork consumption,and suppress net pork imports and the rise of hog market prices,while weakening policies have the opposite effect on the hog market.In addition,The policy implementation has the more obvious effect on the hog production than on the hog market prices,while the urban and rural residents’pork consumption and net pork imports are relatively less affected.In order to further strengthen the foundation for the stable and orderly development of China’s hog mar⁃ket,it is recommended to optimize the hog market regulation and control policy system,enhance the abil⁃ity to deal with major animal epidemics,and scientifically guide urban and rural residents in pork con⁃sumption.