台湾地区“南向政策”变迁研究——基于历史制度主义视野

A Study of the Changes in Taiwan’s“Southbound Policy”:From the Perspective of Historical Institutionalism

台湾当局先后八次通过并实施“南向政策”,历经李登辉、陈水扁、马英九和蔡英文等历任台湾地区领导人。梳理台湾地区“南向政策”的历史沿革,政策变迁过程可以划分为萌芽期、形成期、发展期、平稳期、丰富期等时期。基于历史制度主义视野,台湾地区“南向政策”变迁可以根据制度生成理论、制度变迁理论和路径依赖理论进行分析,得出:“南向政策”的形成与两岸经贸关系升温、李登辉个人的政治态度、台湾当局“去中国化”政策等三个因素有关;“南向政策”变迁动力来源于台湾地区领导人的个人意志,变迁模式和路径为自上而下强制性、渐进性叠加变迁;由于退出成本、学习效应、适应性预期和协同效应等因素,“南向政策”变迁具有明显的路径依赖特征,且政策难以被轻易逆转。

The Taiwan authorities have successively adopted and implemented“the Southbound Policy”for eight times by leaders of Taiwan,including Lee Tenghui,Chen Shuibian,Ma Yingjeou and Tsai Ingwen.Combing the history of Taiwan’s“Southbound Policy”,the process of policy change can be divided into five periods:the budding period,the formation period,the development period,the stable period,and the enrichment period.Based on the perspective of historical institutionalism,the change of Taiwan’s“Southbound Policy”can be analyzed according to the theory of institutional generation,the theory of institutional change and the theory of path dependence.It is concluded that the formation of“the Southbound Policy”is related to three factors:the warming of cross-Strait economic and trade relations,Lee Tenghui’s personal political attitude,and“the De-Sinicization Policy”of the Taiwan authorities.The change of“the Southbound Policy”is driven by the personal will of Taiwan’s leaders.The change pattern and path are top-down compulsory and gradually overlapping.Due to exit costs,learning effects,adaptive expectations and coordination effects,the change of“the Southbound Policy”has obvious path-dependent characteristics,and the policy is difficult to be reversed.