数字技术会促进旅游服务贸易出口吗?--基于OECD与ITU国别匹配数据的实证研究

Could Digital Technique Promote the Export of Tourism Service Trade?An Empirical Study Based on OECD and ITU Country Matching Data

文章分析了数字技术影响旅游服务贸易出口的机理,基于OECD与ITU的国别匹配数据,通过构建拓展引力模型进行了实证分析。结果发现:(1)数字技术对旅游服务贸易出口存在显著的正向影响,在考虑内生性问题以及稳健性检验后,这一结论依然成立;(2)数字技术对旅游服务贸易出口的正向影响总体呈现出边际贡献递减的时变特征;(3)数字技术对旅游服务贸易出口的促进在“南—南”经济体组合中强于“北—北”经济体组合,但在“北—南”或“南—北”经济体组合中并不显著。基于中介效应模型的研究发现,数字技术通过降低贸易成本促进旅游服务贸易出口。文章从数字技术的视角细化分析了其对旅游服务贸易出口的影响,并捕捉到经由贸易成本途径的作用机制,为后疫情数字时代下我国旅游服务贸易出口“提档增速”提供了理论参考。

The authors analyze the mechanism of the impact of digital technique on the export of tourism service trade,and based on the country matching data of OECD and ITU to make an empirical analysis by constructing the extended gravity model.The results show that:(1)digital technique has a significant positive impact on the export of tourism service trade,which is still valid after considering the endogenous problem and robustness test;(2)on the whole,digital technique has a positive impact on the export of tourism service trade,showing a time-varying feature of diminishing marginal contribution;(3)the export of tourism service trade promoted by digital technique is stronger in"South-South"economies than in"North-North"economies,but it is not significant in"North-South"or"South-North"economies.Based on the mediating effect model,the authors find that digital technique promotes the export of tourism service trade by reducing the trade cost.From the perspective of digital technique,the authors analyze its impact on the export of tourism service trade in detail,and capture the mechanism through the way of trade cost,which provides a theoretical reference for the"upgrading and growth"of China's tourism service trade export in the post epidemic digital era.