“双循环”发展的区域性与产业异质性分析--基于跨期IO表的研究

Research on Regional and Industrial Heterogeneity of“Dual Circulation”-Based on the Analysis of Inter-temporal IO Table

加快构建“双循环”新发展格局是中国进入新发展阶段后的重要任务之一。基于最新可得的投入产出表数据,本文将双循环拓展到省级层面,针对各省份对国内外市场的依存度变化及相互联系,分析我国“双循环”新发展格局在省级层面的异质性。研究发现:从总体上看,我国长期处于总供给大于总需求的状态,内循环在双循环中具有重要地位;从省级层面看,在国外贸易循环中的省际间供需平衡差异趋同,但在国内循环贸易中,省际间供需平衡差异趋异;从产业上看,机械品、食品业、生产品的对外依赖度有刚性特征,不同地区各产业的外循环差异明显。基于系统的实证分析,我们提出相关的政策调整建议。

After entering a new stage of development,accelerating the construction of the“dual circulation”development pattern is one of the most important tasks for China.Based on the latest input-output tables data,this paper expands dual circulation to provincial level.Based on the interrelationship of provinces between domestic and foreign markets,at the provincial level,this paper analyzes the heterogeneity of the“dual circulation”development pattern.The research found that,in a long time,the total supply of China is greater than total demand,and the internal circulation plays an important role in dual circulation.At the provincial level,the differences about the balance of supply and demand among provinces converge in foreign trade.However,in domestic trade,the balance of supply and demand among provinces are still different.From the perspective of industry,the external dependences of machinery,food,and production industries have rigid characteristics,and the external circulations of various industries are significantly different.Based on the analysis,some relevant policy adjustments have been proposed in the end.