1971-2016年新疆≥10℃积温时空变化

Temporal and Spatial Variation of Accumulated Temperature of≥10℃in Xinjiang from 1971 to 2016

≥10℃积温已成为衡量局部地区热量变化的重要指标之一。新疆地区的农牧业及经济社会发展深受≥10℃积温的影响。利用克里金插值法和Mann-Kendall突变检验趋势分析法,对1971—2016年新疆的逐日平均气温资料进行统计分析,得到新疆≥10℃的积温、初始日期、终止日期和持续日数4项热量要素值的时间和空间分布特征。结果表明:①近46年,新疆各县市≥10℃积温值均以68.5 d·℃/daa呈显著性增加趋势。日平均气温稳定通过10℃积温的开始时间提前约1.5 d/daa、结束时间推迟约3 d/daa、≥10℃积温持续时间以40.3 d/daa的变化率明显延长。②≥10℃积温呈现出较复杂的地带性差异,即南疆高于北疆、平原和盆地高于山区的空间分布格局。③新疆≥10℃积温在1998年发生突变,在突变前呈略微减少的趋势,突变后呈增加的趋势,且突变显著。

≥10℃accumulated temperature has become one of the important indicators of local heat change.The agricultural,animal husbandry and economic and social development in Xinjiang are deeply affected by accumulated temperature≥10℃.Using the Kriging interpolation method and Mann-Kendall mutation test trend analysis method,the daily average temperature data of Xinjiang from 1971 to 2016 was statistically analyzed,and the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the four heat element values of accumulated temperature,initial day,end day and duration days≥10℃in Xinjiang were obtained.The results show that:①In the past 46 years,the accumulated temperature of≥10℃in all counties and cities in Xinjiang has shown a significant increasing trend at 68.5 d·℃/daa.The start time of the stable daily average temperature passing the accumulated temperature of 10℃is advanced by about 1.5 d/daa,the end time is delayed by about 3 d/daa,and the duration of the accumulated temperature of≥10℃is significantly prolonged at a rate of change of 40.3 d/daa.②The accumulated temperature of≥10℃presents a more complex zonal difference.The spatial distribution pattern of southern Xinjiang is higher than that of northern Xinjiang,and plains and basins are higher than mountainous areas.③Xinjiang≥10℃accumulated temperature has a sudden change in 1998.Before the sudden change,it shows a slight decreasing trend,and after the sudden change,it shows an increasing trend,and the sudden change is significant.