住房财富与中国城镇家庭消费--基于面板数据的实证研究

Housing Wealth and Urban Household Consumption in China:An Empirical Study Based on Panel Data

利用2013年、2015年和2017年CHFS数据构建家庭追踪面板数据,实证检验住房财富对我国城镇家庭消费的影响效果。研究发现:第一,住房财富对家庭消费产生显著的促进作用,这种促进作用在不同消费形式与不同特征家庭之间存在异质性;第二,随着家庭持有住房套数的增长,住房财富效应表现出上升趋势;第三,住房财富效应随着户主年龄呈现出钟形生命周期特征;第四,家庭的住房财富相对水平能够提升家庭收入的边际消费倾向;第五,住房贷款提升了住房财富对家庭消费的影响效果。因此,建议坚持“房住不炒”定位,促进房地产市场健康平稳发展;提高家庭可支配收入与财富积累水平;积极发展消费信贷,促进消费升级。

Based on 2013,2015 and 2017 CHFS data,this paper constructs family balanced panel data,and empirically tests the effect of housing wealth on the consumption of urban households in China.The study found that:First,housing wealth has a significant promotion effect on the consumption of urban households,and this promotion effect is heterogeneous between different types of consumption and households with different characteristics.Second,with the increase of the number of houses,the housing wealth effect shows an upward trend.Third,with the increase of the household head’s age,the housing wealth effect shows a bell-shaped life-cycle trend.Fourth,the relative level of household housing wealth can increase the family’s marginal propensity to consume.Fifth,housing debts enhance the effect of housing wealth on households consumption.According to our conclusions:we should adhere to“housing to live without speculation”;keep the healthy and stable development of the real estate market.It is also necessary to further increase household disposable income and wealth.develop consumer credit.We should also actively develop consumption credit and promote the upgrading of consumption structure.