东莞制造业产业升级影响因素的实证研究

An Empirical Study on Influencing Factors of Dongguan's Manufacturing Industry Upgrading

本课题在中国产业升级的背景下,以东莞制造业为研究对象,对科技创新、人力资本、产业升级进行指标化和量化分析,建立VAR模型。通过分析,科技创新对产业升级的影响系数为正,但滞后一期后迅速由正数变为负数,其作用没有得到充分的发挥,而人力资本对产业升级的影响系数为负数,说明东莞制造业主要依靠引进人力资本解决用工问题,缺乏对人力资本的投入。通过Granger因果检验发现,科技创新是人力资本的格兰杰原因,产业升级是人力资本的格兰杰原因,其他变量之间均未形成格兰杰因果关系。

In the context of China's industrial upgrading,this topic takes Dongguan manufacturing industry as the research object,conducts indexed and quantitative analysis on technological innovation,human capital,and industrial upgrading,and establishes a VAR model.Through analysis,the influence coefficient of technological innovation on industrial upgrading is positive,but after a period of lag,it quickly changes from positive to negative,its role has not been fully exerted,and the influence coefficient of human capital on industrial upgrading is negative,indicating that manufacturing in Dongguan The industry mainly relies on the introduction of human capital to solve the employment problem,and lacks investment in human capital.Through the Granger causality test,it is found that technological innovation is the Granger cause of human capital,and industrial upgrading is the Granger cause of human capital.There is no Granger causality between other variables.