国际货币计价策略及人民币的选择

Pricing Strategy of International Currency and the Choice of RMB

文章基于2000Q1~2020Q2国际债券计价货币和2012.08~2020.08国际支付计价货币数据,采用马尔科夫区制转换模型分析了美元、欧元、日元、英镑计价策略阶段性变化,并对人民币的选择展开了思考。研究表明:首先,国际债券计价货币比国际支付计价货币具有更为明显的区制转换特征,国际债券计价货币对于货币计价职能推进更多体现为一种长期策略,而国际支付计价货币易受到外界因素干扰,更多体现为一种短期策略。其次,从推进货币计价职能策略来看,要把握国际债券计价货币、国际支付计价货币二者在实际应用中的侧重,不要由于短期内目标而影响了货币国际化进程。最后,人民币计价策略选择要把握经济全球化趋势,在国际债券和国际支付方面各有侧重。当前美元、欧元、日元和英镑计价的国际债券已经转向了衰退期,这是人民币国际债券发展的机遇;但当前同样也是美元、欧元、日元和英镑国际支付的扩张期,这则是人民币国际支付的挑战。

This paper focuses on the function of international monetary valuation. Based on the data of international bond pricing currency share from the first quarter of 2000 to the second quarter of 2020 and the international monetary payment share data from August 2012 to August 2020, this paper makes an empirical study on the main international currencies, namely, the United States dollar, euro, yen, pound and RMB by means of Markov regime switching analysis. The research shows that the international currency denominated bonds have more obvious process of regional conversion and the duration is longer than that of international currency payment. Therefore, the promotion of international bond to the function of currency valuation is a long-term strategy. International monetary payment will be affected by external factors and will change frequently, so it is a short-term strategy.Therefore, in order to successfully deal with the impact of different economic and political events, we need to grasp the differences in the practical application of the two and the emphasis of pricing strategies in different periods. At the same time, the internationalization of RMB valuation function needs to grasp the trend of economic globalization, adhere to the development concept of the community of shared human destiny, strengthen international economic cooperation, join the international monetary system in an unshakable manner, comprehensively improve the internationalization of RMB pricing function, and then promote the process of RMB internationalization.