信贷审慎与跨境资本审慎政策的协调搭配研究

Research on the Coordination and Collocation of Domestic Credit Prudence and Cross-Border Capital Prudence Policies

后危机时代中国金融风险治理面对两大挑战,一是因内部持续宽松的融资环境而引发的信贷风险,二是因外部短期跨境资本流动而产生的汇率风险。文章从完善宏观审慎政策系统性视角,构建包含信贷宏观审慎与跨境资本宏观审慎的政策分析框架,研究信贷与跨境资本宏观审慎政策设计与效果。结论表明:信贷领域与跨境资本领域相互关联,信贷扩张引起跨境资本流入,跨境资本流入引起信贷扩张,最终都会驱动人民币升值与资产价格上升;仅一个领域实施宏观审慎政策不能较好消除两个领域的金融风险,需要实施两个领域的双审慎政策;从审慎政策可操作性、经济波动与政策损失最小化的角度综合考虑,最优的双审慎政策组合是信贷宏观审慎政策关注信贷增长与资产价格上涨,跨境资本审慎政策关注跨境资本与汇率波动;此组合政策间具有独立性,能够避免政策冲突,即使仅一个领域存在风险,“双审慎”组合政策的有效性也不逊色于单个领域的审慎调控。

In the post-crisis era, China′s financial risk management faces two major challenges: one is the credit risk caused by the continuous loose internal financing environment, and the other is the exchange rate risk caused by short-term cross-border capital flows. From the systematic perspective of improving macroprudential policies, this paper constructs a policy analysis framework including credit macroprudential and cross-border capital macroprudential, and studies the design and effect of credit and crossborder capital macroprudential policies. The results show that :(1) the credit sector and the cross-border capital sector are interrelated. Credit expansion leads to cross-border capital inflow, and cross-border capital inflow leads to credit expansion, which ultimately drives RMB appreciation and asset price rise.(2) The implementation of macro-prudential policies in only one area cannot eliminate financial risks in two areas, and it is necessary to implement double-prudential policies in two areas. From the perspective of maneuverability, economic fluctuation and policy loss minimization, the optimal dual prudential policy combination is that: credit macroprudential policy focuses on credit growth and asset price rise, and cross-border capital prudential policy focuses on cross-border capital and exchange rate fluctuation.(3) The combination of policies is independent and can avoid policy conflicts. Even if there is a risk in only one field, the effectiveness of the " dual prudential" combination policy is not less than that of prudent regulation in a single field.