长寿风险、主观生存概率与养老金融资产配置

Longevity Risk,Subjective Survival Probability and Aging Financial Asset Allocation

寿命不确定性是影响个人生命周期储蓄的重要因素,预期寿命的延长势必对养老规划和养老金融资产配置带来一系列影响。本文利用《中国人口与就业统计年鉴》数据,在历史死亡率的基础上预测未来死亡率变化趋势,计算出各年龄、性别人群活到某特定年龄的预期生存概率,并将其与CHARLS 2018中的主观生存概率数据相匹配。实证研究表明,预期生存概率与主观生存概率间呈现出显著正相关关系,说明人们意识到死亡率下降趋势并能调整主观生存概率,长寿风险作为环境变量对个人的主观生存概率产生正向影响。主观生存概率上升不会显著影响储蓄水平,但会显著提升个人持有商业养老保险、风险性金融资产的可能性,并相应增加年缴保费和持有金额。

This article uses data from the"China Population and Employment Statistical Yearbook"to predict future mortality trends based on historical mortality statistics,calculates the expected survival probability of people of all ages and genders living to a certain age,and compares them with the subjective survival probabilities in the CHARLS 2018.Empirical research shows that there is a significant positive correlation between the expected survival probability and the subjective survival probability,indicating that people can aware of the future decline in mortality and can adjust the subjective survival probability.The longevity risk,as an environmental variable,has a positive impact on the individual’s subjective survival probability.The rise in subjective survival probability will not significantly affect the level of savings,but will significantly increase the possibility of personal holdings of commercial endowment insurance and risky financial assets,together with a corresponding increase in annual premiums and holdings amount.The relationship between subjective survival probability and aging financial asset allocation has significant heterogeneity among different age and household register groups.