油杉属植物的地理分布及潜在分布区预测

Geographical Distribution and the Prediction of the Potential Distribution of Keteleeria

油杉属植物隶属松科,具有极高的经济价值和科研价值。然而近年受气候变化和人为因素等影响,油杉属植物野生种群数量急剧减少。在全球气候变化背景下,预测油杉属各时期适宜分布区对其保育措施的制定及合理引种栽培具有重要意义。研究拟借助MaxEnt模型,综合19个环境变量和272个标本分布记录,对油杉属植物柔毛油杉、铁坚油杉、油杉和云南油杉的过去、现在和未来的分布进行预测、模拟其地理分布,并推测其主导环境变量。结果表明:1)云南、贵州和广西是我国油杉属植物的主要分布区。2)除柔毛油杉外,在未来气候变化情景下,铁坚油杉、油杉和云南油杉分布区均有继续扩散的可能。3)温度和降水是油杉属植物的现代最适宜分布区的主要影响因素。其中,贡献较大的环境限制因子为年均温度Bio1、年最冷月最低温Bio6、年温度变化范围Bio7、年最干季均温Bio9、年最冷季均温Bio11、年均降水量Bio12和年最暖季降水量Bio18。研究可为油杉属种质资源的开发、利用和保护提供一定的理论参考。

Keteleeria belongs to family Pinaceae and has high economic and scientific values.However,due to the climate changes and human disturbances,the wild population of Keteleeria has decreased sharply in recent years.Under the background of global climate change,it is of importance to predict the suitable distribution area of Keteleeria in different periods for the formulation of conservation measures and rational introduction and cultivation of Keteleeria.Based on the MaxEnt model,this study synthesized 19 environmental variables and 272 distribution records to predict the past,present and future distributions of several Keteleeria species,including K.pubescens,K.davidiana,K.fortunei and K.evelyniana.The results showed that 1)provinces of Yunnan,Guizhou and Guangxi were the main distribution areas.2)Except for K.pubescens,the distribution areas of K.davidiana,K.fortunei,and K.evelyniana would be likely to continue spreading under the future climate.3)Temperature and precipitation were the main factors affecting the optimum distribution area of Keteleeria.Among them,the environmental limiting factors that contribute significantly were the annual mean temperature(Bio1),the minimum temperature of coldest month(Bio6),the temperature annual range(Bio7),the mean temperature of driest quarter(Bio9),the mean temperature of coldest quarter(Bio11),the annual precipitation(Bio12)and the precipitation of warmest quarter(Bio18).This study can provide a theoretical guidance for the development,utilization and conservation of Keteleeria.