基于生存分析视角的战略科学家成长路径研究

Research on the Growth Path of Strategic Science and TechnologyTalents Based on the Perspective of Survival Analysis

工程院院士作为战略科技人才的重要组成部分,为引领中国科技强国战略的实施提供重要智力支持,对其成长的研究已成为众多领域关注的焦点。本文以2011—2019年增选的中国工程院院士为研究对象,选取其中250名院士的履历信息并对其进行编码,采用生存分析法研究院士成长过程中各因子的影响效果。Kaplan-Meier分析表明,工作单位性质对教授阶段的成长不显著,但随着职业生涯进入院士阶段,这种影响趋于显著。Cox分析结果表明,有过海外留学经历、最高学历授予单位为科研院所、发表的SCI与EI均对教授阶段的生存风险产生显著正向影响,从而加快教授阶段的成长;年龄、接受过连续性高等教育经历降低院士阶段的生存风险进而延缓院士阶段的成长,最高学位类型为医学、国家科学技术奖则增加院士阶段的生存风险进而加快院士阶段的成长。

Academicians of the Academy of Engineering provide important intellectual support for leading the implementation of the strategy of the country s scientific and technological power,and they are important part of strategic scientific and technological talents.Research on their growth has become the focus of many fields.This paper takes the academicians of the Chinese Academy of Engineering co-opted from 2011 to 2019 as the research object,selects the resume information of 250 academicians and deeply encodes them,and uses survival analysis to study the effects of various factors in the growth of academicians.Kaplan-Meier analysis shows that the nature of the work unit has no significant effect on the growth of the professor stage,but the effect tends to be significant as they enter the academician stage.Cox analysis results show that the experience of studying abroad,the highest degree-granting unit is a research institute,and the published SCI and EI have a significant positive impact on the survival risk of the professor stage,thus accelerating the growth of the professor stage.The experience of continuous higher education reduces the survival risk of the academician stage and then delays the growth of the academician stage.Medical degree as the highest degree type,and the National Science and Technology Award increases the survival risk of the academician stage and accelerates the growth of the academician stage.