基于AHP-熵权法的西宁地区汛期暴雨灾害风险评估

Rainstorm disaster risk assessment in Xining area in rainy season based on the AHP weight method and entropy weight method

本研究结合主观与客观灾害评估,利用西宁地区的地理信息、水系、土地利用、社会经济、气象要素、灾害等信息,运用层次分析法、熵权法、AHP-熵权组合法对西宁地区5区2县暴雨灾害进行风险评估。结果表明:暴雨灾害高风险面积占比最大是城北区,其次是湟源县、大通县和湟中区。较高以上风险面积占比超过50%乡镇与后期灾情资料检验基本吻合,暴雨灾害高风险指标乡镇也与实际灾情乡镇相对应,具有指示意义。3种方法进行比较,发现熵权法更能突出局部乡镇的较高以上风险,AHP-熵权组合法则平衡了熵权法与AHP法的共同影响,并能随着数据进行动态评估,有助于提高西宁地区防灾减灾工作的灵活性与可持续性,为预防暴雨灾害提供决策参考。

Using geographic data,river information,cultivated land data,socio-economic data,meteorological factors,disaster data and other information,combined with the subjective analytic hierarchy process and objective entropy weight method to assess the risk of rainstorm disaster in Xining area of Qinghai Province.The results show that the maximum proportion of high-risk area is the north area of Xining City,followed by Huangyuan County,Da-tong County and Huangzhong County.The villages and towns which area proportion with above medium high risk over 50%are basically consistent with the test of later disaster information,and the high-risk indicators of villages and towns are also corresponded to disaster situation.Therefore,it has indicative significance.Compared the three methods,found that the entropy weight method can highlight the medium and high risk of local areas,and the combi-nation method balances the common influence of entropy weight method and AHP method,and also can make dy-namic evaluation with data update,which is conducive to improve the flexibility and sustainability of disaster pre-vention and mitigation in Xining area,and provides a useful reference for the prevention of rainstorm disaster.