论优化生育政策与促进人口长期均衡发展

On Improving Fertility Policies to Promote the Long-termBalanced Development of Population

计划生育是我国的一项基本国策,促进人口长期均衡发展是我国的人口发展战略目标,生育政策是计划生育的政策体系核心。伴随人口和经济社会发展的主要矛盾由人口数量快速增长转向人口结构快速老龄化,生育政策已经从过去的紧缩型政策转向目前的适度宽松型政策。半个世纪以来,生育政策外生性因素与经济社会奇迹内生性因素相向而行作用于生育率,生育政策在推动完成我国人口转变和实现稳定低生育水平过程中发挥了积极作用。纵观全球,人口发展均衡模式表现为高生育率、适度生育率和低生育率三种类型,中国已经直接跨越了适度生育率,从高生育率快速走入低生育率。当下与未来,生育政策与经济社会持续发展对生育率的作用相背而行,在自发性的生育意愿疲软和生育行为低迷的条件下,新时代计划生育基本国策的未来目标应是:构建公平公正的公共生育政策体系,在人口增长得到有效控制之后,着力调控人口数量,努力改善人口结构,不断提高人口素质,合理布局人口分布,促进人口长期均衡发展。

In China,family planning is one of the basic state policies,and promoting the long-term balanced development of population is the national population strategic goal.Fertility policy is at the core of the family planning program.With the main contradiction between population and social economic development shifting from the rapid population growth to the rapid aging of the population structure,the fertility policy has been changed from the past tightening policy to the current moderately loose policy.Over the past half century,the exogenous fertility policy and the endogenous factors of social economic miracles have worked together on the fertility rate from high to low,and the fertility policy has played a positive role in promoting the completed demographic transition and realizing a stable low fertility level.Across the world,the balanced pattern of population development shows three types:high fertility,moderate fertility and low fertility.China has directly crossed the moderate fertility pattern and rapidly moved from high fertility pattern to low fertility pattern.Now and the future,unlike sustained economic and social development that continues to lead to lower fertility rates,the fertility policy wants to get a rising fertility rate.Under the conditions of the spontaneous weak fertility willingness and the low fertility behavior,the future role of adhering to the basic national family planning policy in the new era is to build neutral,fair,just and equal social and public fertility policy system,to correct the population structural contradictions after the population growth is effectively controlled,to improve the quality of the population,and to promote the long-term balanced development of the population.