基于Budyko假设的湟水径流变化归因识别

Attribution Analysis of Runoff in the Huangshui River Based on the Budyko Hypothesis

变化环境下水循环成为当今水科学研究的热点问题,河川径流作为水循环的重要环节,识别其变化原因对流域水资源管理和规划具有重要的现实意义。以湟水为研究对象,采用线性倾向估计、累积距平、滑动t检验分析径流变化特征,基于Budyko假设的敏感性方法定量评价气侯和人类活动对径流的贡献率。结果表明:湟水年径流呈不显著减少趋势,径流突变年份分别为1980年、1990年和2004年。1981-1990年降水是影响径流增加的主要因素;1990年以后下垫面是导致径流减少的主要因素,人类活动导致下垫面发生变化主要体现在水利工程建设、退耕还林(草)和水土保持措施实施。

The water cycle under changing environment is a hot topic in current water science research.Runoff as an important part of water cycle,identifying the cause for its changes is of great practical importance to water resources management and planning.Taking the Huangshui River as an example,this paper uses the linear tendency estimation,accumulative anomaly,and moving t test to analyze the variation characteristics of runoff.The sensitive method based on Budyko hypothesis is used to evaluate the contribution of climate and human activities to runoff.The results show that annual runoff presented an insignificant decrease trend,and the break points of runoff occurred in 1980,1990 and 2004.During 1981-1990,precipitation played a vital role in runoff increase.After 1990,underlying surface led to runoff reduction,human activities including construction of hydraulic engineering,conversion of farmland to forest(grassland)and soil and water conservation measures changed underlying surface.