对冲中的摇摆:三边互动下的日本“印太战略”演进

Swings of Hedging: The Evolution of Japan’s “Indo-Pacific Strategy” Under Trilateral Interactions

日本“印太战略”作为一种对冲战略在近年出现了显著摇摆:从针对中国的制衡性举动,到一度表现出与中国合作的姿态,再到出现成为美国“印太战略”附从的趋向。在中国、美国、日本三边互动视野下分析日本“印太战略”的波动,有助于解释中美竞争背景下美国亚太盟国对冲战略摇摆的机理。除了既有研究所强调的体系与单元结构要素,美国亚太盟国在中美间所采取的对冲战略还受美国同盟管理策略与中国对外战略姿态这两个进程性变量的共同影响。美国的同盟管理策略影响其亚太盟国对美国的追随动力。是否涉及中国核心利益则决定中国对这些国家是以克制安抚还是坚决斗争为主,进而影响到它们配合美国制衡中国的强度。二者的组合促使美国亚太盟国的对冲战略在“促美制华”“联美制华”“随美制华”“左右摇摆”“左右为难”以及“对华接触”之间摇摆变化。对美国对日同盟政策、中国对日政策态势以及日本“印太战略”调整变化的追踪梳理验证了这一判断。美国亚太盟国对冲战略的摇摆轨迹由中美两国的策略选择所共同塑造,中国对此应坚持“两手对两手”的策略。

Japan’s “Indo-Pacific” strategy has been fluctuating significantly in recent years as a hedging strategy: from a balancing movement against China, to showing gestures of cooperation with China,to revealing a tendency to become a subordinate to the US Indo-Pacific strategy. Analyzing the fluctuations of Japan’s “Indo-Pacific strategy” in the context of the trilateral interaction among China, the United States, and Japan can help explain the mechanism of the US Asia-Pacific allies’ hedging strategy against the background of Sino-US competition. Apart from the system and unit structural factors highlighted by previous studies,the hedging strategies adopted by the US allies in the Asia-Pacific between China and the US are also significantly influenced by two process variables: the alliance management strategy of the United States and China’s foreign strategic posture. The US alliance management strategy affects the dynamics of US Asia-Pacific allies’ adherence to Washington. Whether China’s core interests are at stake determines whether China’s approach to these countries is primarily restraint and appeasement or determined struggle,which in turn affects the intensity of those US allies’ cooperation with Washington to counterbalance China. The combination of the two drives the hedging strategy of the US Asia-Pacific allies to “dragging the US to contain China”,“supporting the US to contain China”,“following the US to contain China”,and “swaying from side to side between China and the US”,“being caught in a dilemma between the two sides”and “engaging China”. The process tracing of the US alliance policy toward Japan,China’s policy posture toward Japan,and the evolutions of Japan’s “Indo-Pacific strategy ” in recent years has supported this proposition. The swings of the US Asia-Pacific alliance hedging strategy is jointly shaped by the strategic choices of both China and the United States,for which China should maintain a “two hands against two hands” strategy.