摘要
在化解重大金融风险与“稳字当头、稳中求进”的双重压力背景下,本文构建地方政府债务与私人投资交互影响的作用机制理论模型,利用省际面板数据采用门槛效应与双向因果关系模型实证检验后发现:地方政府债务对私人投资水平呈现先抑制后促进的“U”型影响,其门槛值为0.138 5,而私人投资对地方政府债务产生的影响呈现“倒U”型;地方政府债务对私人投资水平的影响呈现显著的区域异质性,西部地区的债务平衡点比东部地区低。本文为科学防控地方政府债务风险和有效促进私人投资回暖提供了新的经验证据。
Under the dual pressure of resolving major financial risks and "prioritizing stability while pursuing progress", this paper firstly constructed a theoretical model of the interaction mechanism between local government debt and private investment, and then used the threshold effect and the two-way causality model to make an empirical test based on inter-provincial panel data. We found that, local government debt had an "U" shaped influence on private investment level with a threshold value of 0.1385, while private investment had an "inverted U" shaped influence. Meanwhile, this impact of local government debt had significant regional heterogeneity, and the debt equilibrium point in western region was lower than that in eastern region. This article has provided new empirical evidences for scientifically preventing and controlling local government debt risks, as well as effectively promoting the recovery of private investment.
作者
王柏杰
WANG Bai-jie(School of Public Policy and Management,Northwestern Polytechnical University,Xi'an 710072,China)
出处
《山西财经大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第6期42-55,共14页
Journal of Shanxi University of Finance and Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金(21FJYB011)
陕西省软科学基金(2022KRM072)。
关键词
重大金融风险
地方政府债务
私人投资
挤出效应
区域异质性
major financial risk
local government debt
private investment
crowding out effect
regional heterogeneity
