盾构综合管廊人员疏散可靠度计算

Calculation of human evacuation reliability for shield-integrated pipe gallery

针对当前盾构综合管廊安全运维问题研究内容较少、且多未考虑不确定性因素,以及盾构管廊运维规范缺失的现状,对管廊安全运维问题中的火灾后人员安全疏散问题进行研究,以广州市天河智慧城盾构段综合管廊为研究对象,从概率角度计算廊内火灾后人员疏散可靠度。通过PyroSim软件进行1:1火灾建模,得到可用安全疏散时间,借鉴隧道灾后人员逃生行为概率分布,在考虑管廊运维期间特点的基础上对逃生行为概率模型进行优化,设置对比工况,运用Monte Carlo方法,通过Matlab编程进行必须安全疏散时间的随机抽样模拟,并据此计算出人员安全疏散可靠度。结果表明,在一个防火区间内普通人员的疏散可靠度约为0.889,检修人员的疏散可靠度约为0.99,趋近于1;日常的疏散演习和安全规范手册等控制手段能够对人员的安全提供极大的保障。研究成果能够为日后盾构综合管廊运维规范的编制提供参考。

In view of the limited research on current comprehensive utility tunnel shield safety operations and inconsideration of the uncertainty factors in the shield-integrated pipe gallery operations as well as their specifications,this study aims at safe human evacuation from the gallery during fire hazard for the operations research personnel using the Guangzhou Tianhe smart city comprehensive utility tunnel shield segment as the research object to calculate the probability of safe human evacuation.A 1:1 fire modeling is performed using PyroSim software to determine the available safe evacuation time。Referring to the probability distribution of personnel′s escape behavior after a tunnel disaster,the probability model of escape behavior is optimized while considering the characteristics of the operation and maintenance period of the pipe gallery,and the comparative working conditions are set using the Monte Carlo method.The random sampling simulation of the necessary evacuation time was conducted using Matlab programming,and the safety evacuation reliability was calculated.The results show that in a fire prevention zone,the evacuation reliability is 0.889 for the ordinary personnel and 0.99 for the maintenance personnel,i.e.,close to 1.Daily evacuation drills,safety specification manuals,and other control measures can considerably improve the safety of the personnel.These results are expected to provide a reference for the compilation of operation and maintenance specifications of daily support structures for integrated pipe galleries.