基于SD模型的绿色建筑建造成本控制研究

A System Dynamics-Based Study on Cost Control of Green Building Construction

国家和地方政府在推进碳中和目标落地的同时将绿色建筑的发展作为主要工作方向。然而,因为绿色建筑成本较高,其推广和发展相对缓慢。为了有效降低绿色建筑建造成本,提出了一种动态的成本分析方法,即采用系统动力学模型,结合情景模拟分析,挖掘绿色建筑建造成本的关键影响因素。结果表明:室内外环境设计、节能设计、节材设计在情景模拟下率先促使建造成本水平值达到100,确定其为关键因素。当逐渐加大节材设计的投入时,建安费用会出现负值,进而促使建造成本会出现下降趋势。该模型能全面反映绿色建筑建造成本系统的整个动态情况,为投资方做出精确决策提供一定参考。

National and local governments have made the development of green buildings a major direction of work while promoting the implementation of carbon neutrality targets. However,because of the high cost of green buildings,their promotion and development are relatively slow. To effectively reduce the cost of green building construction,this paper proposes a dynamic cost analysis method,a system dynamics model combined with scenario simulation analysis,to explore the key influencing factors of green building construction cost. The results show that indoor and outdoor environment design, energy-saving design and material-saving design take the lead in promoting the construction cost level value to 100 under the scenario simulation, which is determined to be the key factor. When the investment in material-saving design is gradually increased, the level value of construction and security costs is negative, which in turn promotes a downward trend in construction costs. Compared with other mathematical models, this model can more fully reflect the entire dynamic situation of the green building construction cost system, providing a certain reference for investors to make accurate decisions.