逆全球化压力下贸易冲击的经济波动压力测试——基于产业关联理论

Stress Tests for Economic Fluctuation Under the Pressure of Deglobalization:Based on Industry Linkage Theory

逆全球化背景下,外部冲击对经济平稳性的影响日益受到关注,并成为重要议题。贸易冲击是外部冲击最直接和直观的测度方式,也是导致外向型经济体产出波动的重要因素。文章基于产业关联理论构建动态Leontief模型,并结合中国42个产业的实证数据,采用数值模拟方法分析进出口贸易冲击通过产业关联对经济波动的压力传导机制。研究发现:出口贸易冲击通过直接拉动效应、间接拉动和推动效应对经济波动造成压力,且该压力通过产业间关联扩大;进口贸易冲击通过进口替代产业发展反向拉动了经济增长。这进一步表明中国经济具有韧性,能够承受一定程度的外部波动压力,“双循环”新发展格局已逐步呈现,应在关键领域的重点产业找准施策发力点。

In the context of deglobalization,the impact of external shocks on economic stability attracts increasing attention and becomes an important topic.Trade shock is the most direct and intuitive measure of external shocks,and it is also the important factor leading to output fluctuation of export-oriented economies.This paper constructs a dynamic Leontief model with industry linkage theory and uses the numerical simulation method to analyze the pressure transmission mechanism of import and export trade shocks on economic fluctuation through industry linkages based on the empirical data of 42 industries in China.The research shows that export trade shock exerts pressure on economic fluctuation through direct pull effect as well as indirect pull and push effect,and the pressure increases through industry linkages;import trade shock reversely drives economic growth through the development of import substitution industries.This further indicates that China’s economy is resilient and can withstand the pressure of external fluctuation to a certain extent.The new development pattern of“dual circulation”has gradually emerged and it is necessary to identify the right starting point for policy implementation in the key industries in the critical areas.