双碳目标下柳州市碳排放预测模型研究

Research on the Prediction Model of Carbon Emission in Liuzhou City under the Double Carbon Target

“二氧化碳排放力争于2030年前达到峰值,努力争取2060年前实现碳中和”是中国对国际社会的庄重承诺。柳州市作为广西第一大工业城市,在广西乃至全国的节能减排战略中具有重要的地位。利用柳州市近十年能源消耗数据,采用相关性分析筛选出影响二氧化碳排放的五个重要因素,基于STIRPAT模型,使用岭回归的方法完成对柳州市二氧化碳排放量预测模型的估计。结果表明:该模型的预测误差小,具有一定的实用性,可以为碳排放量化研究提供支撑。

Strive to reach the peak of carbon dioxide emissions by 2030,and strive to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 is China’s solemn commitment to the international community.As the largest industrial city in Guangxi,Liuzhou plays an important role in the energy conservation and emission reduction strategy of Guangxi and even the whole country.Using Liuzhou’s energy consumption data over the past decade,a correlation analysis was performed to identify five key factors affecting carbon dioxide emissions,based on the STIRPAT model,the method of ridge regression is used to complete the prediction model of carbon dioxide emissions in Liuzhou.The results show that the prediction error of the model is small and has certain practicability,which can provide support for the quantitative research of carbon emissions.