基于DPSIR-GM(1,1)模型的甘肃省生态安全评价与预测

Evaluation and prediction of ecological security in Gansu province based on DPSIR-GM(1,1)model

生态环境质量的综合评价是实现经济社会与自然环境协调发展的重要前提。以甘肃省为研究区域,基于“驱动力—压力—状态—影响—响应”(DPSIR)概念模型,构建生态安全评价指标体系,运用灰色关联改进理想解(TOPSIS)的评价方法,对甘肃省生态安全状况进行综合评价,并采用灰色预测模型对2019—2023年甘肃省生态安全的发展前景进行分析。结果表明:甘肃省2009—2018年生态安全状况总体呈现上升趋势,安全等级从敏感上升至一般;驱动力、压力及影响指标有波动下降的趋势,状态及响应指标值逐年上升;甘肃省2019—2023年的生态安全综合指数从0.7274增长至0.9463,达到安全状态。

The comprehensive evaluation of the ecological environment quality is an important prerequisite for the coordinated development of economic society and the natural environment.In this article,taking Gansu province as the research area,based on the conceptual model of“driving force-pressure-state-impact-response”(DPSIR),a ecological security evaluation index system is constructed,which combines the grey relational improved ideal solution(TOPSIS)evaluation method to comprehensively evaluate the ecological security status of Gansu province,and the gray prediction model is used to analyze the development prospects of ecological security in Gansu province from 2019 to 2023.The results show that the ecological security of Gansu province from 2009 to 2018 indicate an overall upward trend,and the security level rise from a sensitive to a general;The driving force,pressure and influence indicators have a fluctuating downward trend,and the status and response indicator values are rising year by year;The comprehensive index of ecological security of Gansu province from 2019 to 2023 will increase from 0.7274 to 0.9463,which will reach a safe state.