中国区域金融韧性水平测度与分布特征分析

The Measurement and Distribution Characteristics of China's Regional Financial Resilience

文章基于主成分分析法,测度了中国2011—2021年省级金融韧性水平,引入马尔可夫转移概率矩阵、泰尔指数、莫兰指数、核密度估计法、变异系数法对金融韧性发展的动态变化、区域差异性、空间分布、时间演进、收敛性特征进行了具体分析。研究结果认为:第一,各省金融韧性在不同发展水平上均具有相对稳定性;第二,区域金融韧性发展具有不平衡性;第三,各省金融韧性发展在地理位置上具有一定的正向外溢性;第四,东、中、西部各省份的金融韧性发展不平衡态势扩大;第五,各个区域中金融韧性水平发展具有一定的趋同性。

Based on principal component analysis,this paper measured the level of provincial financial resilience in 2011—2021 in China,then used the Transition Probability Matrix,Theil index,Moran's I,kernel density estimation and Coefficient of variation method to analyze the dynamic changes,regional differences,spatial distribution,time evolution and convergence characteristics of the development of financial resilience in detail.The results show that:First,the financial resilience of each province is relatively stable at different development levels;Second,the development of regional financial resilience is unbalanced;Third,the development of provincial financial resilience has positive geographical spillover;Fourth,the development imbalance of financial resilience in eastern,central and western provinces has widened;Fifth,the development of financial resilience in various regions has a certain trend of convergence.