中国地方政府债务最优规模研究

Study of the Optimal Size of Local Government Debt in China

政府债务是地方政府实现经济稳增长的重要政策工具,但能否实现这一预期政策目标,取决于政府债务规模是否适度。理论模型表明,促进经济增长的最优政府债务规模是存在的,而实证研究也验证了这一理论命题。基于2003~2017年样本数据研究发现,促进中国省级政府经济增长的最优债务规模转折点大致在20%~25%之间,东中西部地区政府债务规模的增长效应的转折点分别是25.2%、23.3%和20.1%。在当前经济增速放缓的背景下,地方政府可以通过发债实现经济阶段性增长,但应该控制其合理规模,并理顺地方政府债务作用机制,防范地方政府债务风险。

Issuance government debt has become an important policy tool to stabilize growth.However,whether growth can be stabilized depends on whether the size of government debt is moderate.The theoretical model suggests that the optimal size of government debt for promoting economic growth exists.The empirical analysis verifies the theoretical proposition.Based on the data from 2003 to 2017,the result shows that the turning point of the growth effect of the size of government debt in Chinese provinces is abaut between 20%and 25%.The Robustness analysis suggests that the turning points for the growth effect of government debt size in the eastern regions,central regions,and western regions are 25.2%,23.3%and 20.1%.Respectively,the debt turning point may occur between 10%and 15%at the earliest.This paper advocates that during the period of economic downturn,the government should issue debt moderately to rationalize the mechanism of government debt role and prevent government debt risk.