气象因素对盘锦地区水稻产量的影响及预测模型的建立

Influence of Meteorological Factors on Rice Yield and Establishment of Predictive Model in Panjin Area

为探究气象因素与盘锦地区水稻产量的关系,运用指数平滑系数法从2009~2018年的水稻产量中计算得出水稻的趋势产量,进而分离出其气象产量,再与盘锦地区水稻生育期5~10月的各气象因素进行相关分析,得到关键气象因子,构建预测模型并经行验证。结果表明:水稻产量与气象因素具有一定的相关性,其中,5月平均温度及7月的湿度对水稻气象产量的相关系数较高,∣r∣相对较大。用构建的预测产量模型对2009~2018年的水稻产量进行验证,准确度均大于95%,最低为96.01%,最高为99.68%,预测平均值为98.57%。

The purpose of this study was to assess the relationship between meteorological factors and the rice yield data of Panjin City in Liaoning Province.According to the meteorological data and rice yield data during the years of 2009-2018,by using exponential smoothing method,the meteorological yield of rice was separated out from the calculated tendency yield.Constructed predictive model and got the key meteorological factors by correlation analysis with meteorological factors of rice growth period from May to October.The results showed that the certain correlation between the rice yield and meteorological factors.The average temperature in May and the humidity in July had a higher correlation coefficient with relatively large|r|.The established model was used to verify the rice yield from 2009 to 2018,and the accuracy was more than 95%,the lowest was 96.01%,the highest was 99.68%,and the average predicted value was 98.57%.