黄河流域高质量发展的时空跃迁及驱动因素分析

Research on the Temporal-spatial Transition and Driving Mechanismof High-quality Development in the Yellow River Basin

文章基于生态环境约束测算黄河流域高质量发展水平,从时空耦合视角探究高质量发展的跃迁特征及其驱动因素。研究发现:(1)黄河流域高质量发展呈现东高西低的空间分布格局,高质量发展的地区差距呈波动下降的趋势,流域内差距是空间差异的主要来源。(2)黄河流域高质量发展存在“路径依赖”和“马太效应”,上游城市表现出更加动态的局部空间结构和更加波动的空间依赖关系,低值俱乐部集聚是LISA时空跃迁的主流形态。(3)在高分位点,黄河流域高质量发展呈现出“一荣俱荣,一损俱损”的特征,产业结构、创新水平、基础设施和政府调控是黄河流域高质量发展提升的关键,金融发展是制约高质量发展的主要因素。在高分位点,对外开放成为新的驱动力量,创新水平的作用更加显著。在生态优先定位下,黄河流域高质量发展需要实施创新驱动战略以加快产业转型升级,发挥金融支持作用,强化高水平开放、高品质公共服务和高效能治理的助推作用。

Based on the ecological environment constraints, the paper explores the transition characteristics of the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin and its driving factors from the perspective of space-time coupling. The research finds firstly that the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin presents a spatial distribution pattern of high in the east and low in the west. The regional disparity of high-quality development shows a fluctuating downward trend, and the disparity within the basin is the main source of spatial disparity. Second, the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin shows“path dependence”and“Matthew effect”. The upstream cities show a more dynamic local spatial structure and a more volatile spatial dependence relationship. The agglomeration of low-value clubs is the mainstream form of the LISA space-time transition. At the high-scoring point, the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin presents the characteristics of“one prosperous and one-loss all-in-one”. Industrial structure, the innovation level,infrastructure and governance regulation are the key forces for the improvement of the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin, and financial development plays a more significant role at high quantiles. Opening up becomes new driving force, and the role of innovation level is more significant. Under the positioning of ecological priority, the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin needs to implement an innovation-driven strategy to accelerate industrial transformation and upgrading, play a financial support role, and strengthen the role of high-level openness,high-quality public service and high-efficiency governance.