围绕南海问题的信息权力作用过程与机制研究

Evolutions and Mechanisms of the Function of Information Power in the South China Sea Issue

2010年以来,南海争端呈现扩大化和复杂化的态势,形成环南海周边国家侵占岛礁、域外国家广泛介入的局面,进而推动南海问题日益走向“国际化”。分析南海问题中的国家(地区)间合作与冲突关系,挖掘南海问题“复杂化”的深层原因,这是理解当前南海局势、避免战略误判的重要支撑。文章借助GDELT新闻媒体数据库,提取2013—2021年有关南海问题的事件数据,利用年代约束聚类方法将南海问题划分为矛盾上升期(2013—2018年)和域外介入期(2019年以后),并利用社会网络分析方法探讨南海问题中的国家(地区)间合作与冲突关系以及背后的信息生产网络。研究发现:1)矛盾上升期,围绕南海问题的合作与冲突主体主要为环南海国家;2)域外介入期,美国、英国、澳大利亚等域外国家结盟合作并围堵中国,中国在与域内国家紧密合作的同时,却成为冲突关系网络的核心,冲突关系复杂、合作关系萎缩与当前人们对南海问题有所缓和的认知形成矛盾,反映信息权力的作用愈发深远;3)信息生产网络中,美、英、澳等国家主导信息制造和加工过程,表明南海问题成为各信息行为体博弈的角力场。

Since 2010, the South China Sea dispute has been expanding and becoming increasingly complicated,gradually forming a situation in which neighboring countries around the South China Sea are encroaching on islands and reefs, and extra-regional countries are becoming widely involved, thus increasingly pushing the South China Sea issue toward internationalization. We analyze the relationship between cooperation and conflict among countries(regions) around the South China Sea and explore the reasons for the complication of the South China Sea issue more deeply, especially the information production power competition around the issue, which is the bridge between information power and discourse power, as well as the link between cyberspace and physical space. Further, our findings can help China understand the current situation in the South China Sea and avoid strategic miscalculations. Based on the GDELT(Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone) database, we extracted event data about the South China Sea issue from 2013 to 2021 and used the chronologically constrained clustering method to divide the South China Sea issue into a period of rising conflicts(2013-2018) and a period of extra-regional involvement(after 2019). We used the social network analysis method to explore the relationship between cooperation and conflict among countries(regions) involved in the South China Sea issue and the information production networks behind them. We found the following:(1) During the period of rising conflicts, the main subjects of cooperation and conflict regarding the South China Sea issue were mainly countries(regions) around this sea.(2) During the period of extra-regional involvement, the United States,Britain, Australia, and other extra-regional countries have allied and cooperated to besiege China regarding the South China Sea issue, and China has become the core of the network of conflicting relations while cooperating closely with intra-regional countries. The complex conflict relationship and shrinking cooperation relationship contradict our current perception regarding the South China Sea issue to stop the chaos and resolve the issue,reflecting the increasingly profound role of information power.(3) In the information production network, the United States, Britain, Australia, and other countries dominate the information production and processing, while China and other intra-regional countries(regions) are gradually marginalized from the information production network handling the South China Sea issue, indicating that the issue has become a wrestling ground for various information actors. The above results seem to indicate that the South China Sea issue of "reduced cooperation and widespread conflict" is the result of the involvement of extra-regional countries such as the United States, Britain,and Australia in the information power competition over the South China Sea, and that information power geopolitical actors in cyberspace can use their information power ties to influence the expression of the relationships among countries in physical space.