21世纪海上丝绸之路能源贸易结构及与中国的贸易关系演变

Evolution of energy trade structure in the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road and its trade relations with China

能源安全与能源合作是“21世纪海上丝绸之路”建设的重点领域与核心内容,理清沿线能源贸易结构演化特征对明晰“能源海上丝绸之路”建设的方向与路径具有一定意义。论文基于2000—2018年沿线国家化石能源贸易数据及其对外经贸属性,借助贸易互补模型、复杂网络方法、GIS空间技术等手段,揭示了沿线能源贸易的产品结构、网络结构及空间格局演化特征,探讨了海上丝绸之路在中国能源对外贸易中的地位变动及互补特征。研究发现:①沿线贸易规模近年扩大,贸易逆差明显。进口占全球的比例有所上升,出口占比整体下滑。②原油、液化天然气和煤炭产品是主要贸易产品。发达国家多对技术要求较低的原始产品具有进口劣势,对加工制成品具有出口优势,发展中国家基本相反。③消费大国逐步取代出口大国成为石油贸易网络核心节点;资源赋存国家始终主导天然气贸易网络;出口大国与消费大国共同主导煤炭贸易网络。④石油贸易形成亚洲洲内“拱形”格局且不断夯实;天然气贸易呈亚洲“金三角”和地中海“四边棱形”结构并存格局;煤炭贸易呈跨洲“多拱”联系衰落、洲内贸易增强格局。⑤海上丝绸之路是中国重要的能源供给地与合作对象。中国与沿线国家在石油贸易领域互补水平较高但有所下滑,在天然气与煤炭贸易领域互补水平较低但逐步提高。

Energy security and cooperation are the key and core contents in the construction of the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road.Clarifying the evolution characteristics of energy trade structure along the road is of certain value to figure out the direction and path of the construction of the energy Maritime Silk Road.Based on the fossil energy trade data of countries along the road from 2000 to 2018 and their foreign economic and trade attributes,with the help of trade complementarity model,complex network method and GIS space technology,this paper reveals the evolution characteristics of product structure,network structure and spatial pattern of energy trade along the routes,and discusses the change and complementary characteristics of the Maritime Silk Road in China’s international energy trade.The following conclusions can be drawn.Firstly,the scale of trade along the road has increased in recent years,with obvious trade deficit.The proportion of imports in the world has increased,while that of exports has declined.Secondly,crude oil,liquefied natural gas and lignite are the main trading products.Most developed countries have import disadvantages for raw products with low technical requirements and export advantages for processed products,and the situation is opposite in developing countries.Thirdly,the major consuming countries have gradually replaced the major exporting countries as the core node of the oil trade network;countries rich in resources always dominate the natural gas trade network;major exporters and consumers jointly dominate the coal trade network.Then,oil trade has formed an"arch"pattern in Asia and has been continuously consolidated;the natural gas trade is in the coexistence pattern of"Golden Triangle"in Asia and"quadrilateral prism"in the Mediterranean.The intercontinental connection of the coal trade is weakening,while the trade within the continent is strengthening.Finally,countires along the Maritime Silk Road is important energy suppliers and partners of China.The complementary level between China and countries along the road in the field of oil trade is high,with a decreasing trend,while that in the field of natural gas and coal trade is low but with an increasing trend.