2010-2020年济南市经济发展与生态环境的协调度、敏感性及障碍度研究

Research on coordination on coordination, susceptibility and obstacle of economic development and eco and obstacle of economic development and eco logical environment in Ji'nan from 2010 to 2020

本文运用指数变换法、变异系数法、协调度模型、敏感性模型、障碍度模型和ARIMA预测对近年来(2010-2020年)济南市经济发展与生态环境的协调度、敏感性及障碍度进行定量分析。研究结果表明:①经济发展、生态环境及其协调度分别呈现出“波动增长”、“波动下降”和“整体上升”的变化趋势,协调度敏感性总体上不高,主要障碍因子都具有较强的阶段性,未来时段协调度将平稳上升;②济南市经济发展与生态环境协调关系取得一定成效,但仍需高度重视生态环境保护工作;③后续研究应当从更广区域、更长时段和更多指标以及多维系统协调度等方面进行拓展。

In this paper,the coordination degree,susceptibility and obstacle degree of economic development and ecological environment in Ji'nan in recent years(2010-2020)are quantitatively analyzed by using index transforma tion method,coefficient of variation method,coordination degree model,sensitivity model,obstacle degree model and ARIMA prediction.The results show that:①Economic development,ecological environment and their coordination degree show the changing trends of"fluctuating growth","fluctuating decline"and"overall rise"respectively.The sen sitivity of coordination degree is generally not high,the main obstacle factors have strong stages,and the coordination degree will rise steadily in the future;②The harmonious relationship between economic development and ecological environment in Jinan has achieved some results,but we still need to pay high attention to ecological and environmental protection;③The follow-up research should be expanded from the aspects of wider region,longer period and more in dicators,as well as the coordination degree of multi-dimensional system.