光伏储能电站平价上网系统动力学分析模型

System Dynamics Analysis Model of Photovoltaic Energy Storage Power Station for Grid Parity

为了论证大型光伏储能项目平价上网的经济性,本文基于项目成本和收益的构成及逻辑关系,构建了光伏储能项目平准化成本系统动力学模型。以某平价光伏项目为例,对其配置不同规模储能场景下的项目平准化成本和投资收益率进行测度,并对光伏储能项目平价上网影响因素进行敏感性分析。结果表明,所建模型可用于判断光伏储能项目能否实现平价上网,并能够准确测定项目实现平价上网的边界条件。本文研究不仅能够辅助光伏电站投资决策,也有助于区域光伏产业政策的制定。

To demonstrate the economy of a large-scale photovoltaic(PV)energy storage project for grid parity,a level⁃ized cost of electricity-net present value(LCOE-NPV)system dynamics model of the PV energy storage project is con⁃structed,which is based on the composition and logical relationship between the project’s cost and its benefit.A PV project for grid parity is taken as an example,the LCOE and internal rate of return(IRR)under different energy stor⁃age configuration scenarios are measured,and the sensitivity analysis of influencing factors of the PV energy storage project for grid parity is carried out.Results show that the established model can be used to judge whether the PV ener⁃gy storage project can realize grid parity,and it can also accurately determine the project’s boundary conditions for real⁃izing grid parity.This study can not only assist the investment decision-making of PV power stations,but also contribute to the formulation of regional PV industry policies.