基于水足迹理论的甘肃省水资源利用与经济增长脱钩分析研究

Decoupling Analysis of Water Resource Utilization and Economic Growth in Gansu Province Based on Water Footprint Theory

为了探讨甘肃省水资源利用与经济协调发展之间的关系,利用甘肃省2008—2019年统计数据分析了水足迹趋势以及水资源评价指标,最后利用构建的脱钩评价模型对水资源利用与经济增长之间的关系进行评价。结果表明:甘肃省近12年来水足迹与人均水足迹呈平行波动上升趋势,其中农业水足迹是水足迹的主要组成部分,平均占比为86.78%,生态用水足迹有逐年上升趋势;水资源自给率保持在90%以上,水资源经济效益由20.11元/m^(3)(2008年)增长到43.35元/m^(3)(2019年),年均增长率为6.6%,水资源压力指数近5年有下降趋势,整体属于水安全状态;GDP与水资源利用之间的关系正在逐步从弱脱钩向强脱钩转变,农业产值与农业用水之间的关系由最初的不理想扩张型负脱钩向强脱钩转变。基于结论,为进一步促进甘肃省水资源利用与经济增长之间更好地协调高质量发展,在农业、进出口贸易、生态等方面提出了建议。

To explore the relationship between water resource utilization and coordinated economic development in Gansu Province,this study employs the statistical data of Gansu Province from 2008 to 2019 to analyze the trend of water footprints and evaluation indicators for water resources.Moreover,the decoupling evaluation model is used to evaluate the relationship between water resource utilization and economic growth.The results reveal that the water footprint and per capita water footprint of Gansu Province have shown an upward trend of parallel fluctuations for the past 12 years,in which the agricultural water footprint is the main component of water footprints,accounting for 86.78%on average,and the ecological water footprint increases year by year.The self-sufficiency rate of water resources remains above 90%,and the economic benefit of water resources increases from 20.11 yuan/m^(3)(in 2008)to 43.35 yuan/m^(3)(in 2019),with an average annual growth rate of 6.6%.The pressure index of water resources has had a downward trend in the past five years,which is in a state of water security on the whole.The relationship between GDP and water resource utilization is gradually changing from weak decoupling to strong decoupling,and that between agricultural output value and agricultural water use is changing from negative decoupling with unsatisfactory expansion to strong decoupling.On the basis of these conclusions,some suggestions on agriculture,import and export trade,and ecology are put forward to promote the high-quality coordinated development between water resource utilization and economic growth in Gansu Province.