产业投资基金真的可以驱动经济结构优化吗——产业基金对经济增长与产业升级驱动程度的PVAR模型分析

Can Venture Capital Drive the Optimization of Economic Structure?A PVAR Model Analysis on the Driving Degree of Industrial Fund to Economic Growth and Industrial Upgrading

在中国经济转型过程中,众多地方政府选择产业投资基金作为优化经济结构的助推工具,但实践中各地方产业基金的投资效果与期望目标存在较大差异,因此需要对产业基金的经济优化效应进行检验。运用诺依曼定理分析产业基金与经济结构优化的互动机制并提出研究假设,采用面板向量自回归模型将经济结构优化表示为经济增长与产业升级,并与产业投资基金进行实证检验。结果表明,产业基金并不是经济结构优化的驱动因素,而只是其结果。一方面,产业基金并不会直接驱动经济增长与产业结构升级,而是通过增加金融投资总量间接作用于经济结构优化;另一方面,产业升级与经济增长会显著吸引产业投资基金。鉴于大量设立产业投资基金对于优化经济结构效果不显著,因而应当重点促进多元金融产业发展、提高企业融资能力、发展多种形式的金融工具。

Many local governments in China choose industrial investment funds as a tool to boost economic structure optimization,but in practice,the investment effect of local industrial funds is quite different from the expected goal,so it is necessary to study and verify the economic optimization effect of industrial funds.Theoretical research based on Neumann theorem shows that when exogenous shocks such as innovation and technological progress occur,economic development will enter an unbalanced stage.After the optimization and adjustment of industrial structure at this stage,the economy will have balanced and rapid growth.Therefore,it is necessary to accelerate the structural transformation of the unbalanced stage of economy through financial instruments such as industrial funds.Hence this paper puts forward the research hypothesis that industrial foundation drives economic structure optimization and upgrading(H1).On the other hand,Neumann theorem also shows that industrial value premium will be formed in the process of economic structure optimization,so it will also form an effective attraction to VC/PE.Based on this,another research hypothesis is proposed:industrial fund is not the driving mechanism of economic structure optimization,but economic optimization will attract the investment of industrial fund.In order to study the interactive mechanism between industrial fund and economic structure optimization,this paper selects industrial structure upgrading and economic growth as the proxy variable of economic structure optimization,and constructs a panel vectorauto-regressive model with financial investment variables such as venture capital and total social financing for empirical test and analysis.In the results of the benchmark test,it can be found that the optimization of economic structure will form an attractive effect on venture capital and financial investment,but the impact of venture capital on economic optimization is heterogeneous.The benchmark test shows that financial investment can not only drive economic growth,but also promote the upgrading of industrial structure.Although the effect of venture capital on economic growth is not significant,it can significantly drive industrial upgrading.According to this research conclusion,in practice,some local governments have exhausted various ways to attract and solicit equity investment funds in order to drive industrial upgrading,and even set up a large number of industrial investment funds in some areas.However,in the provinces with relatively backward industrial structure,the industrial structure has not been improved as expected in a certain period.Therefore,some researchers argue that industrial investment funds will not drive industrial upgrading.The problem in the benchmark model is that although it shows that venture capital can drive industrial upgrading,it does not confirm whether the investment scale of industrial funds drives industrial upgrading by increasing the total financial investment,or the industrial structure upgrading caused by the investment scale of industrial funds itself.In order to further refine the research mechanism,this paper selects the entropy of venture capital in financial investment as the research variable to eliminate the interference of other financial instruments on the action mechanism of industrial funds.It is proved by the empirical test that the sample data can not confirm the significance of industrial investment funds to drive industrial upgrading and economic growth,but the upgrading of industrial structure has a significant attraction to the investment of industrial funds.Granger causality test and impulse response function analysis are used to confirm the research conclusion that industrial funds are not the driving factor of economic structure optimization,but only the result.Meanwhile,industrial funds do not directly drive economic growth and industrial structure upgrading,but indirectly affect economic structure optimization by increasing the total amount of financial investment.Therefore on the one hand driving economic optimization can increase the total amount of financial investment rather than just increasing the proportion of industrial funds;on the other hand,industrial upgrading and economic growth will form a significant attraction to industrial investment funds.When the economy is optimized,the proportion of industrial funds in the region will automatically increase significantly.According to the research,the establishment of a large number of industrial investment funds has no significant effect on optimizing the economic structure,but it will lead to factor duplication and resource waste.Therefore we should focus on vigorously promoting the development of diversified financial industry,enhancing enterprise financing ability and developing various forms of financial instruments.