城市客运交通规划的碳排放估算方法

Carbon Emissions Estimation Method of Urban Passenger Transportation Planning

为了在城市客运交通规划阶段科学开展交通碳排放定量计算,研究提出按照现状参数标定、规划参数推算、规划排放预测三个步骤估算未来交通碳排放的总体思路。以上海城市客运交通为例,计算现状小客车、公交车、轨道交通等各类交通工具运营能耗和碳排放。然后,结合汽车、轨道交通以及能源等相关行业研究成果,研判未来各类客运交通工具运营能耗强度因子和碳排放强度因子。最后,结合城市客运交通规划方案,提出对私人和公共交通工具交通活动量差别化估算方法,并采用多情景分析方法估算未来城市客运交通活动量以及对应的交通能耗、碳排放情况。研究表明,通过优化职住空间结构、改善交通方式结构、推广清洁能源应用,均可降低交通碳排放;从具体减碳效果来看,提高私人小客车电动化比例和降低当地电网排放因子共同作用可取得最好的减碳效果,碳排放对其的弹性为0.91;其次是居民出行距离,碳排放对其的弹性达0.85。

In order to scientifically calculate the transportation carbon emissions in urban passenger transportation planning stage,a general framework of carbon emissions estimation was proposed,which includes three steps:current parameter calibration,planning parameter calculation and planning emissions prediction.Taking Shanghai urban passenger transportation as an example,energy consumption and carbon emissions of each type of urban passenger transportation vehicle such as passenger cars,buses,rail transit were calculated.Then,according to the research results of automobile industry,rail transit industry and energy industry,the energy consumption per unit of transportation movement and carbon emissions per unit of energy consumption in the future were discussed.Finally,based on the planning layout,a transportation activity differential estimation method was proposed for public transportation and private vehicles respec-tively;the urban passenger transportation activities and their corresponding energy cost and carbon emissions of different scenarios were estimated.The results showed that transportation carbon emissions could be reduced by optimizing the job-housing structure,improving the transportation modes structure and promoting the application of clean energy technologies in the future;combining the growth of private electric passenger car utilization and the reduction of local grid emission factor could achieve the best carbon reduction effect,and carbon emission elasticity of which was 0.91,followed by the travel distance of residents,whose carbon emission elasticity was 0.85.