不确定性对车辆轨迹预测的影响研究综述

A Review on the Study of Impacts of Uncertainties on Vehicle Trajectory Prediction

通过对国内外车辆行驶面临的不确定性问题进行归纳,重点分析了车辆轨迹预测方法及其不确定性、环境预测不确定性、车辆模型不确定性、环境感知不确定性、驾驶行为不确定性和多车间的交互与博弈对轨迹预测的影响,进一步明确不确定性对车辆轨迹预测的影响机理及控制方法,为解决不确定性导致的车辆轨迹预测误差问题提出合理的解决思路。针对车载传感器的测量误差、轨迹预测模型误差和驾驶员转向稳定性差等问题,指出基于传感器融合、车辆模型运动特性和驾驶员模型的方法将成为未来的主要研究方向。

Through a summary of the uncertainties faced by vehicles in China and other countries,this paper mainly analyzes vehicle trajectory prediction methods and the impacts of their uncertainties,environmental prediction uncertainties,vehicle model uncertainties,environmental perception uncertainties,driving behavior uncertainties,interaction of multiple vehicles on trajectory prediction,further clarifies the influence mechanism and control methods of uncertainty on vehicle trajectory prediction,and proposes reasonable solutions to the problem of vehicle trajectory prediction error caused by uncertainties.For the measurement error of on-board sensors,the error of trajectory prediction model and the poor steering stability of the driver,the paper indicates that methods based on sensor fusion,vehicle model motion characteristics and driver model will become the main research directions in the future.