新冠疫情社会生产恢复影响因素地理探测研究

Driving Forces of Social Production Recovery by Geographical Detector under the Influence of COVID-19 Epidemic

随着COVID-19在全球的蔓延,社会经济受到了不同程度的影响。利用移动通信的信令数据计算了2020年3—4月COVID-19影响下湖北省17个城市的人口流动情况,并估算了社会生产逐步恢复后不同阶段的恢复程度。选取社会因素、地理因素和COVID-19因素等14个影响因素,运用地理探测器分析了湖北省社会经济复苏的驱动因素。通过分析各因素对复工率的影响程度发现,地理因素中的铁路、公路密度(q值达到0.7)以及前期COVID-19确诊人数的影响程度较大,而疫情稳定后城市封锁的时间影响变大。目前,世界各地的疫情形势仍在局部爆发,研究结果可为疫情封锁控制和社会生产的恢复提供参考。

With the spread of COVID-19 epidemic around the world,the social economy has been affected to varying degrees.In this paper,using the signaling data of mobile communication,we calculated the population movement under the influence of COVID-19 epidemic in 17 cities of Hubei Province during March to April 2020,and estimated the recovery rate at different stages after the gradual recovery of social production.We selected 14 influencing factors,including social factors,geographical factors and COVID-19 factors,to analyze the driving factors of social and economic recovery in Hubei Province by using geographical detector.By analyzing the influence degree of each factor on the return work rate,we found that three factors,which were the railway and highway density in the geographical factors(q value reached 0.7),and the number of people diagnosed in the early stage of COVID-19,had a greater impact,while the time influence of urban lockdown became greater after the epidemic was stable.At present,the epidemic situation is still erupting locally all over the world,this study can provide a reference for the lockdown control of epidemic and the recovery of social production.