近30年榆林市农作物病虫害发生的时间特征研究

Study on Temporal Characteristics of Crop Diseases and Pests in Past 30 Years in Yulin

近年来,由于气候的异常变暖、农业系统的改变、以及人为等外力干预等因素的影响,榆林市农作物发生生物灾害的频率有明显的增加,特别是以病虫害为主要的生物灾害,不利于农业系统的稳定发展。为了研究榆林市农作物发生病虫害的时间特征,本文根据榆林市1986-2018年病虫害的灾变数据,用线性回归、距平分析、Morlet小波分析等方法,以年际、年代际为时间单位进行了一系列分析,结果表明:①农作物发生病虫害的面积变化倾向率为226.48千hm^(2)次/10a,发生率变化倾向率为0.418%/10a,总体表现为上升的趋势;②农作物病虫害损失面积倾向率为783.25 t/10a,呈现出平稳的上升趋势;③农作物病虫害进行防治的面积倾向率为186.49千hm^(2)次/10a,防治率变化倾向率为0.079%/10a,表现为增加的趋向。总体来看,榆林市农作物病虫害发生情况和损失量均呈上升趋势,病虫害防治水平有所提高,因此建议榆林市政府及相关单位,采取积极有效的措施,以提高农作物的产量。

In the past years,due to the abnormal warming of the climate,the change of agricultural system,and the intervention of human and other external forces,the frequency of biological disasters in crops in Yulin has increased significantly,especially pests and diseases.Frequent disasters are not conducive to the stable development of the agricultural system.Based on the catastrophe data of 1986-2018 in Yulin and use of the linear regression,anomaly analysis,Morlet wavelet analysis and other methods,with inter-annual and inter-decadal as time unit,the temporal characteristics of crop pests and diseases in Yulin were analyzed.The results showed that:①the area change tendency of crop pests and diseases was 226.48 thousand hectares/10a,the incidence rate of was 0.418%/10a,and the overall performance showed an up ward trend;②For the area crop pests and diseases,the propensity rate was 783.25 tons/10a,showing a steady upward trend;③rtendency rate for prevention and control of crop pests and diseases was 186.49 thousand hectares/10a,and the change of control rate was 0.079%/10a,showing an increasing trend.Combined with the research results,the occurrence and loss caused by crop diseases and insect pests in Yulin are on the rising trend,and the level of pest control is improved.Therefore,it is recommended that the local government and related units should take effective measures to increase crop yields.