基于LEAP模型的兰州市道路交通温室气体与污染物协同减排情景模拟

Forecasting of Emission Co-reduction of Greenhouse Gases and Pollutants for the Road Transport Sector in Lanzhou Based on the LEAP Model

基于LEAP模型,构建了2015~2040年兰州市道路交通发展“零措施”的基准(BAU)情景以及低碳(LC)和强化低碳(ELC)这2个节能减排情景,模拟评估各项政策和措施下能源消耗情况和温室气体与大气污染物协同减排效果.结果表明,LC情景能源消耗和CO_(2)排放将于2026年达峰,ELC情景能源消耗和CO_(2)排放将于2020年达峰;两种情景下,NO_(x)、CO、HC、PM_(2.5)和PM_(10)等污染物排放量于2015~2017年间开始出现大幅下降,下降趋势于2023年前后逐渐减缓.结合措施可行性和减排成本,LC情景可作为兰州市道路交通碳达峰减排情景:到2040年能源消耗量、CO_(2)、NO_(x)、CO、HC、PM_(2.5)和PM_(10)排放相对于BAU情景的削减率分别达到-24.17%、-26.57%、-55.38%、-65.91%、-72.87%、-76.66%和-77.18%.兰州市道路交通当前应以公共交通能源清洁化、小型客车电动化和老旧车淘汰等结构优化措施为重点并优先实施,大力宣传提倡低碳出行,加之汽车技术发展伴随的能效提升,道路交通CO_(2)和污染物排放将得到有效控制并尽早实现碳达峰.此外,需关注措施实施过程中CO_(2)和各污染物主要贡献车型的变化,以期从不同排放物重点控制车型的数量或新能源市场份额入手,实现针对性防控.

With the continuous increase in transportation activities,the transportation sector has become an important source of global greenhouse gases.In 2019,road vehicles accounted for nearly three-quarters of the CO_(2) emissions of the entire transportation sector and will be the key to achieving carbon peaks in the transportation sector.At the same time,air pollutants emitted by road vehicles are also one of the threats to the environment and human health.Based on the long-range energy alternatives planning system(LEAP)model,we constructed the baseline(BAU)scenario,low-carbon(LC)scenario,and enhanced low-carbon(ELC)scenario for the development of the road transport sector in Lanzhou from 2015 to 2040 and simulated energy consumption and emission co-reduction of greenhouse gases and pollutants under policies and measures.The results showed that the energy consumption and CO_(2) emissions of the LC scenario will peak in 2026,whereas those in the ELC scenario will peak in 2020.In these two scenarios,pollutant emissions such as NOx,CO,HC,PM_(2.5),and PM_(10) began to decline sharply between 2015 and 2017,and the downward trend will slow down gradually around 2023.Based on the feasibility of measures and the cost of abatement,the LC scenario can be used as a road vehicle carbon peak scenario in Lanzhou.In this scenario,the reduction rates of energy consumption,CO_(2),NO_(x),CO,HC,PM_(2.5),and PM_(10) emissions will reach-24.17%,-26.57%,-55.38%,-65.91%,-72.87%,-76.66%,and-77.18%compared with those under the BAU scenario by 2040.At present,the road vehicles in Lanzhou City should focus on structural optimization measures such as clean-energy use of public transportation,electrification of small passenger cars,and phasing out old cars,as well as vigorously promoting low-carbon travel and improving energy efficiency accompanying the development of automotive technology.These efforts will effectively control CO_(2) and pollutant emissions by road vehicles,and carbon peaks will be achieved as soon as possible.In addition,it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in vehicle types during the implementation of these measures,which most contribute CO_(2) and various pollutants,in order to make the measures more targeted by changing the number or the market share of new energy of focused vehicle types.